某某汽车成本分析和利润预测英文(pdf 28页)

Weaker Chinese margins a risk for ’04 earnings. China
is likely to contribute 70%-80% of VW’s EPS this year, but 3Q
results show worrying signs of falling earnings in this market. If
Chinese profits decline in 2004, the impact could offset some of the
gains expected from the new Golf/other models in Europe. IL/N.
Chinese profits are the main driver of 2003 earnings
VW’s strong exposure to the Chinese auto market is often cited as a positive for the stock.
China will likely be the key driver of earnings in 2003, contributing c.70%-80% of reported
EPS thanks to equity income from the JVs and operating profits from selling parts.
One quarter does not make a trend, but 3Q results show worrying signs
We see worrying signs in VW’s 3Q results that Chinese profits may already be slipping. Proforma
EBIT from the Chinese JVs fell 35% yoy, despite much higher volumes, suggesting
much lower margins. Profits from selling parts to the Chinese JVs also appeared to fall. We
also see some evidence that inventories of Polo, Gol and Audi A6 are rising in China.
A weak Chinese result in 2004 could reduce EPS by EUR1.00 or more
We estimate that China will contribute over EUR2.00 of EPS in 2003, and our current 2004E
forecast assumes EUR2.50 of EPS derives from China. But if Chinese profits in 2004 run at
3Q’s weak level, the Chinese contribution could easily fall to only EUR1.60 next year.
Gains from Golf and Germany may not be enough for VW to hit consensus
2004 is likely to see VW’s US profitability fall further, probably into loss. If China also
declines, it places even more pressure on Europe to deliver an improvement. Our estimates
already assume that the new Golf and other models can deliver a EUR500 mn+ improvement
in EBIT in Europe, yet we expect EPS of only EUR3.90. Consensus is still between EUR4.50
and EUR5.00 for 2004. We are concerned that expectations for an earnings improvement at
VW remain too optimistic.
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