教你如何做价值评估(英文版)(pdf 21页)
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教你如何做价值评估内容简介：
“Valuation is often not a helpful tool in determining when to sell
hypergrowth stocks”, Henry Blodget, Merrill Lynch Equity Research
Analyst in January 2000, in a report on Internet Capital Group, whichwas trading at $174 then.
There have always been investors in financial markets who haveargued that market prices are determined by the perceptions (andmisperceptions) of buyers and sellers, and not by anything as prosaicas cashflows or earnings.
Perceptions matter, but they cannot be all the matter.
Asset prices cannot be justified by merely using the “bigger fool”theory.
Postscript: Internet Capital Group was trading at $ 3 in January 2001.4
Misconceptions about Valuation
Myth 1: A valuation is an objective search for “true” value
• Truth 1.1: All valuations are biased. The only questions are how much
and in which direction.
• Truth 1.2: The direction and magnitude of the bias in your valuation is
directly proportional to who pays you and how much you are paid.
n Myth 2.: A good valuation provides a precise estimate of value
• Truth 2.1: There are no precise valuations
• Truth 2.2: The payoff to valuation is greatest when valuation is least
precise.
n Myth 3: . The more quantitative a model, the better the valuation
• Truth 3.1: One’s understanding of a valuation model is inversely
proportional to the number of inputs required for the model.
• Truth 3.2: Simpler valuation models do much better than complex ones.
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