中国航空业深度研究英文(pdf 21页)

Upgrading the airlines on the Olympics – On our forecast of 18% air passengergrowth and a historically high 74.8% passenger load factor for 2008, we thinkthe Olympics theme will drive Chinese airline stocks. We rollover our estimatesto end-2008 and raise our targets for Air China, CSA and CEA by 48%, 36% and30% to HK$8.00, HK$5.50, HK$3.35, respectively. Air China remains our toppick as the key beneficiary of the 2008 Beijing Olympics.
 Air China is our top pick of the Chinese airlines – As the sole designatedChinese airline for the Beijing Olympics and with 45% market share in Beijing,Air China should benefit most from the Olympics on expanding margins andgreater global brand recognition. We estimate its 2008 EPS to reach RMB0.56.
 Scenario analysis supports our bullish view – If Singapore fuel averages US$70and US$65 in 2007 and 2008, respectively, and the renminbi appreciates 6%p.a., we think the Big Three could see 60% upside. Even under a moreconservative scenario (fuel $75/$70, renminbi appreciates 3.5% p.a.), we thinkAir China could still offer 20% upside.
 Positive catalysts – A favorable industry earnings outlook and the possibility ofsupportive government policies would support airline valuations (see our 3January 2007 note https://www.citigroupgeo.com/pdf/SAP01615.pdf), in our view.
 Key risks – 1) Volatile fuel prices; and 2) possibly high acquisition premium forCEA if SIA walks away. We view a cut in fuel surcharges in line with fuel pricesas neutral.
..............................

上一篇：中国能源市场概况分析(pdf 9页)

下一篇：中国造纸工业的回顾和展望(doc 5页)

五星级酒店设计标准(doc 11)

我国铝业研究报告(doc 27页)

式电阻器行业分析及发展前景研究报告(DOCX 49页)

国泰君安—宏观及债市策略报告(pdf 33页)

某投资公司--房地产行业深度报告(pdf 26页)

氟化工行业研究报告(pdf 14页)