操作管理-决策工具(ppt 28页)

Outline
The Decision Process in Operations
Fundamentals of Decision Making
Decision Tables
Decision Making Under Risk
Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI)
Decision Trees
A More Complex Decision Tree
Learning Objectives
State the decision process
Describe decision tables & trees
Explain decision making under risk
Compute expected monetary value
Use decision tables & trees to make decisions
Models, and the Techniques of Scientific Management Can Help Managers To:
Gain deeper insight into the nature of   business relationships
Find better ways to assess values in   such relationships; and
See a way of reducing, or at least   understanding, uncertainty that   
surrounds business plans and   actions
Steps to Good Decisions
Define problem & influencing factors
Establish decision criteria
Select decision-making tool (model)
Identify & evaluate alternatives using decision-making tool (model)
Select best alternative
Implement decision
Advantages of Using Models
They are less expensive and disruptive than    experimenting with the real world system
They allow operations managers to ask “What if”   types of questions
They are built for management problems and    encourage management input
They force a consistent and systematic approach to   the analysis of problems
They require managers to be specific about    constraints and goals relating to a problem
They can help reduce the time needed in decision   making

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