汇率研究（英文版）.pdf8

Dear Reader:
Many aspects of the U.S. and global outlook are falling into place.
Financial markets read the November jobs report too negatively,
dismissing the rapid growth in hours and prospective economic
growth because of disappointment in the payroll jobs portion of the
report. Unemployment insurance claims, The Conference Board’s
Help Wanted Index, and the jobs questions in the Consumer Confidence
Index all signal that a new cyclical phase in hiring has begun. Indeed,
the growth in hours worked—possibly as high as 3 percent for the fourth
quarter—combined with even a modest productivity assumption suggests
that the fourth quarter GDP could well come in above consensus
estimates. The U.S. forecast (see back page) contains upward revisions
in growth for 2003 and for 2004, with growth in 2004 likely to approach
a 6 percent annual rate.
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