高盛：中国银行业研究（英文版）.pdf28

Bank reform wins continue, add to momentum/critical mass
Recent wins: 1. Credit tightening measures succeeding, taking out the froth, lending excesses.
2. Lower/more realistic loan growth targets heard from most banks. 3. Better awareness of
credit costs, risk-adjusted margins for various lending businesses. 4. Slowly improving credit
independence and corporate governance, credit independence; new NPLs may increasingly
reflect macro cycles, bad micro moves, not fraud or state-mandated unviable loans. 5. HSBC
as wake-up call for local banks after string of strategic investments into China financials.
Likely government moves, banking sector trends
1. Credit tightening measures will likely persist, not lift or fade. 2. Market-oriented measures
will slowly supplement administrative measures. 3. We think policy makers are relatively
satisfied with macro conditions, in no rush to raise rates again. 4. Banks admit NPLs will rise
post-2003/2004 loan boom. 5. Credit cards are now taking off as flagged earlier, but risks
abound. 6. We will see more new entrants/spinoffs/strategic alliances, not consolidation.
RED BOLT: Still-missing links to bank reform success
Risk management reforms: from buzzwords to practice. Earnings power gains to help banks
earn their way out of NPLs. Deeper not just partial state bank privatizations. Bank buyouts
not just buy-ins by foreign banks/investors. Outside hires to shake up, quicken reform. Loan
growth restraint to levels closer to nominal GDP growth. Tighter NPL norms, provision
requirements, given wide gap between stated versus perceived real book values.
China Merchants remains our top pick among A-share listed banks
A visit to
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