美国通信行业研究报告（英文版）.pdf48

The Wall Street Journal, on July 25, 2001, stated that “The impact [of the
Telecom bust] reverberates far beyond telecom carriers and their equipment
suppliers, down through a food chain that reaches into almost every corner of
the economy.” Certainly, the last year has seen a serious contraction in stock
valuations throughout the telecom universe, from service providers to
equipment and component vendors. Each of the past three quarters has
produced a flood of negative earnings announcements, write-offs, and layoffs.
Like all rapid and wide-ranging industry and economic shifts, the “Telecom
Crash” gives rise to more questions than answers. How did it happen? Where is
the industry now? How wide are the effects? When will it be over? Which
companies and technologies will emerge and who will come out ahead?
Over the past several months, a joint team of analysts from McKinsey and
Goldman Sachs have examined these questions to gain context and perspective
on the current communications infrastructure slowdown and life beyond for
equipment, component, and Operational Support Systems (OSS) vendors. This
team arrived at the following conclusions and strategies for success.
Key Conclusions
1. The current equipment industry slowdown has not been caused by a
falloff in actual bandwidth demand (versus ebullient demand forecasts)
from enterprises and other end-users, but rather by supply-side factors
such as over-building by carriers, over-manufacturing by vendors, and
over-capitalization by financial markets, coupled with unrealistic
market expectations.
2. We expect sales of equipment to be impacted for one to two years in
long-haul and less than six months in metro transport markets, driven
primarily by the time it will take to absorb installed overcapacity. In
that time, excess inventories should be consumed and distressed assets
redeploye
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