产权研究亚太中国汽车(pdf 19页)(英文)

• Total vehicle sales rose 7.9% YoY in April, 1.6% YoY YTD
Vehicles sales in April retained the growth pace of March with a 7.9% YoY increase.
On a MoM basis, sales fell by 8% due to seasonality in commercial vehicles, in line
with historical trends.
• Truck sales increased 13.5% YoY in April, 7.6% YoY YTD
Growth continued to be led by light trucks and mini-trucks, where sales increased by
17% and 28% in April. Heavy duty trucks (> 8 tons loading capacity) slid by 2.9% in
April with top manufacturers FAW and Dongfeng sales dropping significantly by 23%
and 22%. Sales of trucks with above 15 ton loading capacity, led by China Heavy
Duty Trucks Group, grew by 16% YoY in April with YTD sales reaching 38% YoY.
• Bus sales drop 1.6% YoY in April but rise 5% YoY YTD
Bus sales slid by 1.6% YoY after a strong month in March. The long bus, middle bus
and light bus segments all recorded negative growth of 1.5%, 15.5% and 6.8%,
respectively, while minibus sales went up by 1.3%.
• Car sales rose 8.2% YoY in April but fell 3.4% YoY YTD
VW sales dropped by 39% YoY but improved by 8.4% on MoM thanks to better sales
in FAW-VW. GM turned to positive growth of 7% YoY, although YTD sales still fell
24% because of the sluggish sales in the first two months. Asian OEMs continued to
outperform but at a slower pace. Honda, Hyundai and Nissan sales volume increased
by 10%, 87% and 60%, respectively, in April. Toyota turned back to a positive 24%
YoY growth after the sluggish performance in March, with its new Crown model
having a meaningful volume contribution of almost 3,000 units.
• Industry net margin worsened to 2.2% in 1Q 2005
First-quarter industry profitability turned ugly because of volume declines, pricing
deflation, rising raw material costs and increasing expenses. Industry net profit
slumped by 79.5% YoY, with net margins shrinking to 2.2% from last year’s 9.7%.
• We hold a Cautious view of the China Autos & Auto Parts Industry
Worsening overcapacity, rising costs, tight industry financing, sluggish demand and
ongoing price wars support our Cautious industry view. We have an In-Line view on
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