全球经济分析(英文)(pdf 30页)

The Global Economy:
Little has changed since our last Monthly Forecast Review, except for the upward
revision to Chinese growth, which leaves Asian growth stable in 2005 and up 0.3pp in 2006.
In fact, the striking feature regarding our global growth projection is its relatively steady
profile. Following the 5.3% peak in growth reached in H1:04, global growth has posted a
deceleration to 4.1%, a trend we anticipate will remain in place this year and next. The
slowdown in trend centres on a deceleration in manufacturing activity, partly reflecting
inventory adjustments. As such, the process is highly cyclical and raises concerns that the
global slowdown will intensify. We believe that once the inventory correction has run its
course – particularly in the US − a moderate rebound in global industrial production growth
should emerge in the second half of the year. But we are mindful that high oil prices are an
additional headwind to the outlook of specific regions, such as Asia and the euro area.
The US and China continue to lead global growth, with the US being largely the engine of
global demand growth. US consumer fundamentals remain solid even as the economy is
transitioning to the mid-cycle phase of the expansion. Our growth forecasts have not changed
materially. We project 3.7% average real growth this year, down from 4.4% in 2004. For Q2,
strong final demand should be offset by an inventory correction, yielding a slower growth
profile of 3.2%. Once the inventory adjustment has run its course, growth should rebound to
3.7% in the second half of the year (see page 4).
The Chinese economy may be closer to achieving a soft-landing than previously thought,
as a natural moderation in industrial and property investment is evolving, with China’s
massive wave of industrial investment (in steel plants, aluminium smelters and cement
factories from H2:03) reaching near completion and new start-up investment……
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